In Australia, the tobacco war has been a disaster

Since the news emerged last week of Labour’s plan to ban smoking in most public areas – most notably, pub gardens – many have rightly criticised the policy on civil-liberties and economic grounds. It’s more evidence of Labour’s instinct for authoritarianism, warned Nigel Farage in the Telegraph. It will be another blow for the country’s beleaguered pubs and bars, formerly the pride of the UK and envy of the world, declared the British Beer and Pub Association.

These points are difficult to argue with. Coupled with its pledge to ban smoking for anyone born in 2009 or later, Labour’s proposed outdoor smoking ban is anti-freedom and it will surely do great damage to the hospitality sector. But there’s another potential consequence of Labour’s crackdown on smoking that is rarely talked about: the fuelling of the black market in tobacco, which could lead to serious crime and violence.

Of course, Britain already has a booming black market in tobacco. But we need only look Down Under to see just how much larger and more dangerous this can get. Over the past few years, the city of Melbourne has tried to turn itself into a ‘smoke-free’ city, complete with smoke- and vape-free zones. Largely as a result of these efforts and others, Melbourne now finds itself in the grip of a tobacco war. More than 80 businesses – mostly tobacco shops, but also restaurants, supermarkets and grocery stores where black-market cigarettes are sold – have been firebombed by rival members of warring gangs since 2022. Remarkably, no one has died in these attacks, mainly because they’ve been carried out in the early hours of the morning. But few would bet on this good luck continuing.

Melbourne’s problems are all too predictable. Like every developed country, Australia has been waging a war on smoking for the past two decades. We have ever-increasing taxation, plain packaging and an indoor smoking ban. The number of Australians smoking underwent a steady decline.

Until it didn’t. A stubborn 12 per cent of Australia’s population remain determined to enjoy their lives with a cigarette. This has opened up a lucrative market for opportunistic gangs. According to the Australian Taxation Office, the black-market tobacco trade is now worth more than $2 billion AUD – more than 10 per cent of the total cigarette market.

Just as the black market in illegal drugs often generates violent conflict between competing gangs, so too does the black market in tobacco. Australian authorities’ unrelenting persecution of smokers has opened up a new frontier of conflict for increasingly violent gangs.

What’s more, just like the war on drugs, this war on smoking has been a colossal failure. The Australian Federal Police might make the odd interception of illegal, untaxed tobacco at ports and airports, but that only raises the question of how much is getting in undetected. In a country with a coastline as vast as Australia’s – more than 34,000 kilometres – the answer is a lot. Another difficulty for the Feds is that, unlike cocaine, tobacco can be grown in Australia and sold as what is colloquially known as ‘chop-chop’.

Unsurprisingly, under-the-counter cigarettes are incredibly easy to buy in Melbourne. Many people buy tobacco multiple times a week. For as little as $16 AUD (cash), you can get your hands on pretty much whatever brand of cigarette you desire. It is now relatively rare to see Aussies with a dreary plain packet of taxed cigarettes.

Polling has suggested that most Brits would support Labour’s plan to ban smoking for anyone born after 2009. It also suggests that a majority are in favour of prohibiting smoking outside pubs. Polling companies should ask respondents if they also support businesses being routinely blown up by gangs competing for supremacy over a market for something that until recently was considered as normal as drinking a beer.

As Australia has shown, heavy-handed attempts to stub out smoking can backfire badly. Labour should heed the warning from Down Under.

Hugo Timms is an intern at spiked.